I feel Ive been throwing the ball well all year, b

Players have good years, bad years and in-between years, and in 2016 Chris Davis had an in-between year. He was a productive major leaguer, worth a lineup spot on a good team. But he will most likely be named on no MVP ballots this week, after finishing 14th in voting a year ago and third two years before that. Taken together its all OK, except that Davis was playing the first year under a $161 million contract that will almost assuredly take him into that phase of his career where theyre eventually all bad (and expensive) years. The Baltimore Orioles needed this one to be good.As teams prepare this month to sign players to new $161 million contracts (or thereabouts), its worth looking at what makes for an in-between season. In one sense, Davis drop-off from 2015 to 2016 is remarkable: By OPS+, Davis (at 107) was more similar to Erick Aybar (at 69) than he was to the 2015 version of himself (147). In another sense, the margins between superstar and expensive, average player are slim enough to straddle.To appreciate this, dont think of a season as a single product, built in a factory somewhere and rolled out to the marketplace in its final form. It is a series of hundreds of individual events, each one with the potential to be good, bad or in-between. Consider it, in fact, like this:Thats what were calling Chris Daviss 2015 season, his good season. Thats the jar of dry black beans, unpopped popcorn, gummy fish, gummy half-fish, mini marshmallows, knockoff M&Ms, semi-sweetened chocolate chips and unshelled pistachios that were going to literally unpack today.Within that jar are the 47 gummy fish, 31 halved gummy fish, 66 knockoff M&Ms, 84 marshmallows and eight chocolate chips that Davis delivered in 2015. These are all delicious treats, and they are all excellent outcomes for a hitter. Within that jar are also 208 uncooked black beans, 214 unpopped corn kernels, and six pistachios. These are bad outcomes for a hitter, and no matter how many home runs a major leaguer can realistically hit, hes going to fill the spaces in between with outs. As Chris Davis did.So Davis went from a near-MVP season to a merely OK season, but not everything changed. For instance, he was hit by exactly as many pitches in both years, so the Orioles got just as many chocolate chips as they might have expected. He grounded into exactly as many double plays, so the Orioles got just as many of those as they have expected. If the Orioles were paying Davis to get hit by pitches, and avoid double plays -- and, in some fractional way, they were -- they would have considered him just as good in 2016 as in 2015. Since HBPs and GIDPs were a wash, lets remove those 14 outcomes from the season, because to the extent that Davis failed to repeat his excellent 2015 season, it happened in the other 650-plus outcomes.Our new jar, free of pistachios and chocolate chips:He drew four more walks in 2016, so to the extent the Orioles were paying him to walk (and they were) they got more than their moneys worth. He had six fewer singles, so to the extent they were paying him to single (and they were), they almost got their moneys worth. Davis repeated all of the walks and most of the singles, so remove all of the walks from the marshmallows, and all but six of the knockoff M&Ms.He hit 38 homers in 2016, down from 47 in 2015. He doubled 21 times, down from 31. So if the Orioles expected him to hit 78 extra-base hits, he lived up to that promise in 59 of 78 instances. Those 19 missing extra-base hits were, more or less, cleanly replaced by 11 extra strikeouts and five extra outs on balls in play. (He also batted five fewer times.)What got lost in the move remains in the jar; thats the 2015 production that Davis couldnt match. What he replaced it with is in the glass, on the right. Were talking about 20 plate appearances that shifted from positive outcomes to negative, fewer than one bad outcome per week. The overwhelming majority of his nearly 700 plate appearances stayed the same.This is not to diminish the value of those 20 plate appearances. Switching a home run to an out costs a team, on average, more than a run and a half. Switching a double to an out is roughly a run lost, and a single to an out is almost three-quarters of a run. The jar on the left is worth about 25 runs more to the Orioles, or about two and a half wins, which teams are willing to pay around $20 million or more for. This is why Davis wont sniff an MVP vote this year, and its why Davis gets lumped in with the regrettable signings from last winter.It does, though, stress how little has to actually change for a hitter to go from great to good, or good to bad, or valuable to albatross. That even in big samples, a small subsample can swing everything, for Davis or for any other hitter.You might wonder where those nine homers, 10 doubles and two singles went, and here again we can see how little has to be different for a lot to be different.From the time that the ball was pitched to the moment it was hit, heres what changed for Davis; a bunch of other things stayed more or less the same, and wont be mentioned:Pitchers threw slightly more pitches in the strike zone -- about 45 out of every 100, up from 43 of 100.Davis was much more patient. He swung about five fewer times per 100 pitches seen, a patience that showed up both at pitches in the strike zone and out of the strike zone. He went from the top 40 percent of free-swingers, in 2015, to the bottom 20 percent in 2016. (This probably explains the modest uptick in both walks and strikeouts, as he worked deeper counts.)More teams shifted against him, though not that many more -- he was already shifted by almost everybody. Still, he hit 127 ground balls against an extreme shift in 2016, up from 113 in 2015 (and 96 the year before that). This cost him a single or so.Finally, the direction the ball went changed dramatically. Davis pulled 55 percent of the balls he put in play in 2015, which was the fourth-highest pull rate among all qualifying hitters. He pulled just under 42 percent of balls he put in play in 2016, which is the 62nd-highest pull rate. That was the biggest change in pull rate in the majors this year, by a lot:This last bit seems, at first glance, like a major change. And considering how much more power most hitters have when they pull the ball -- the league as a whole slugged .665 on pulled balls this year, .541 on balls hit to center, and just .495 on balls hit the other way -- it seems like the answer for the missing homers and doubles.But, in fact, it explains nothing for Davis, who has had extraordinary power to all fields in his career:His slugging percentage to the opposite field over the past five years is the best mark in baseball by more than 65 points. Hitting more balls to left or center isnt necessarily a bug for Davis, and in 2016 especially it worked to his benefit: He slugged .975 on balls hit the other way, more than 100 points better than any other hitter in baseball. He slugged .795 on balls hit to center, fifth best in baseball, two points behind Mike Trout.So it wasnt his inability to pull the ball that cost him power. However, it was his inability to pull the ball for power that cost him power. He slugged only .586 when he pulled the ball, his worst power performance on pulled baseballs since 2011, a season he began in Texas. In fact, here is where we find all the missing extra-base hits, and more:This despite the fact that his exit velocity on pulled baseballs was, at 91.3 mph, almost identical to his 2015 figure (91.6 mph). His exit velocity on pulled line drives went up, from 97.2 mph to 98.7 mph -- and yet his doubles on pulled liners dropped from 16 to five, and homers from five to two. His average exit velocity on pulled fly balls went up, from 95.7 mph to 99.1, and his average distance on pulled fly balls dropped only from 346 feet to 344; and yet his home runs on pulled fly balls dropped in half, from 22 to 11. Sometimes the park just holds you. Sometimes the defense is just a little bit better.One might still take all these facts and conclude that Davis is in serious and irrevocable decline. Most ballplayers older than 30 are in irrevocable decline, after all, and everything weve noted was different about Davis this year might be used to build in a circumstantial case against him: Pitchers threw him more strikes because they (and their advance scouts) already intuit that he isnt as dangerous as he used to be, maybe. He took more pitches because he realizes that, as he ages, he cant handle as many quality pitches on the edges of the zone, maybe. He pulled fewer pitches because his bat is slower, maybe. He did less damage when he did pull it because hes not as strong, maybe. He dealt with hand soreness throughout the season and said himself that I havent been myself all season. His hand kept him from turning the bat over, maybe, or from getting backspin, maybe. Anyway, he struck out more and he hit less. You dont need a jar full of gummy fish to understand that this is what happens to ballplayers sometime after they turn 30.But we, as analysts and baseball fans and GMs signing free agents, miss on veterans almost as often as we miss on young players, because the unknowns about player performance dont go away, they just shift a little. Almost everything Chris Davis did this year was as good as it had been the year before. In a small sliver of his outcomes, sent to just one sliver of the field, everything he hit turned into nothing -- and for no clear or convincing reason. This is one way that a season ends up in the in-between, and its one way that we are overeager to declare a contract sunk 14.3 percent of the way into it. Wholesake Fake Nike Air Force 1 .Y. -- Leading 3-0 with only 11:25 left, the Colorado Avalanche committed a seemingly meaningless penalty to give the New York Islanders a power play. Fake Shoes . The All-Pro lineman got the leg bent under him while trying to make a tackle during the first half of a 22-20 overtime loss at Miami on Thursday night. The medical staff initially thought hed torn the ligament, and the test a day later in Cincinnati confirmed it. https://www.fakeshoes.net/ . Vettel, who has already clinched his fourth straight F1 title, enters the finale with a chance to equal Michael Schumachers 13 victories in a year and match the record of nine consecutive wins by Alberto Ascari in the 1952 and 1953 seasons. Replica Shoes . The All-Pro lineman got the leg bent under him while trying to make a tackle during the first half of a 22-20 overtime loss at Miami on Thursday night. The medical staff initially thought hed torn the ligament, and the test a day later in Cincinnati confirmed it. Cheap Fake Shoes . The team also announced Tuesday that the Braves will wear a commemorative patch on the right sleeve during the season. The patch, shaped like home plate, carries the number 715, Aarons autograph and a "40th Anniversary" banner. ANAHEIM, Calif. -- As he prepares for his final start this year, the Los Angeles Angels Ricky Nolasco hopes an encouraging finish can provide the antidote to an exasperating season.The veteran right-hander will face rookie Daniel Mengden in the Angels second game of their series against the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday night at Angel Stadium.Nolasco, 33, brings a streak of 13 consecutive scoreless innings into the game since an 8-1 loss to the Mariners on Sept. 12.That appearance was the only one of his past five in which Nolasco did not record a quality start. Since Aug. 31, when he threw a four-hit shutout against the Cincinnati Reds, Nolasco has permitted just 22 hits and only six walks in 35 innings while amassing 27 strikeouts, compiling a 1.80 earned-run average and holding opposing batters to a .182 average.Coinciding with his stretch of scoreless innings is a two-game winning streak, Nolascos first of the season. On Sept. 17, the right-hander scattered five hits and two walks in six innings to the Toronto Blue Jays while striking out seven in a 6-1 win. Then on Thursday night, Nolasco combined with two relievers for a 2-0 shutout of the Houston Astros. Nolasco allowed five hits and a walk in seven innings and added five strikeouts.Not since August 2013, when he pitched for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has Nolasco refused to concede a run in successive starts.Right now, hes throwing the ball consistently, Angels manager Mike Scioscia told MLB.com. Hes putting his pitches together better. Hes able to command counts. Hes pitching the outside corner and hes pitching inside well. Mixing in both breaking balls is helping him.Nolascoos recent success provides a dramatic contrast with the rest of the season.ddddddddddddBefore his shutout against the Reds, the right-hander had lost four consecutive starts and five straight decisions. Entering that game against Cincinnati, Nolasco owned a 4-12 record and a 5.24 ERA, most of which he compiled for the Minnesota Twins. The Angels acquired Nolasco and fellow right-hander Alex Meyer at the trading deadline in a four-player deal for left-hander Hector Santiago.I feel Ive been throwing the ball well all year, but Im putting everything together now, Nolasco told MLB.com. Im trying to finish up strong.Mengden, like Nolasco, has struggled most of the season. Acquired from the Houston Astros last year for veteran Scott Kazmir, Mengden lost his first three major league starts after being recalled from Triple-A Nashville on June 11. A 1-5 record and a 5.73 ERA led to a trip back to Nashville before the As summoned him Sept. 3. After two more losses, the 23-year-old right-hander had the best performance of his brief career.Mengden dispersed three hits and issued no walks in seven shutout innings while collecting six strikeouts in a 14-5 rout of the Kansas City Royals on Sept. 15. The rookie retired 10 successive Royals from the first through the fourth innings.I got a lot of quick, early outs on weak contact, which is what we try to do, Mengden told the Associated Press. I went in every inning and tried to establish Strike One, which I guess has been one of my biggest flaws since Ive been up here. ' ' '